A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
